Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Watching the Precinct Numbers Come In for the District 9 Race

As the election results updated this evening, they did not show which precincts were coming in. But it was clear to me by a jump between N=9 and N=16 that Wallingford Road's Ward 21, Precinct 13 was included.

Going through the numbers: Wallingford Road split between Ciommo and Glennon, but was leaning to Ciommo.

Why? The top three candidates -- Ciommo, Glennon, and Schofield -- combined for 3621 votes overall in 27 precincts. Assume 600 of those came from Ward 21, Precinct 13, leaving 3021 in 26 precincts, or 116/precinct. Six of the precincts in the jump from N=9 to 16 should have carried 696 votes for the three candidates, but all seven carried 1260, meaning that the seventh precinct -- Wallingford Road -- came in with 564 votes. (Close enough to my assumption of 600 votes.)

Who did the Wallingford Road votes break to? I just made a simple model guess of 260-260-44 for Wallingford Road's precinct vote, removed those from the overall numbers, then used that 26-precinct overall vote to estimate the vote for six of the seven precincts in the N=9 to 16 jump. Removing those six precincts gives iteration number one for the Wallingford Road vote, fairly close to my initial model guess. So I just iterate through the procedure again, narrowing in on the final answer. Pretty close to convergence with just one iteration.

Answer: the precinct went something like 286-221-58 for Ciommo-Glennon-Schofield, i.e., a split vote leaning Ciommo. Based on these numbers, the ward boss, Naakh Visoky, must not have endorsed a candidate. The voters followed their consciences between Ciommo, the director of a senior center who delivers care to them daily, and Glennon, the socially conservative candidate in the race who they know through beloved former State Representative Brian Golden.

Without Wallingford Road, Ciommo would have still made the final with Glennon. But if the Wallingford Road had gone as a bloc to Ciommo instead of splitting with Glennon, then Wednesday we might be starting a re-count for second place between Glennon and Schofield.

Wallingford Road's Ward 21, Precinct 13 therefore determined second place in this election, not first.

OK, OK, OK... I'll wait for the precinct-by-precinct numbers to come in before setting that statement in stone.

No comments: