According to the Twitter-universe -- actually the Watertown TAB's Twitter feed -- the unofficial vote totals for the special senate primary election for the full district are:
William Brownsberger 4958
Jonathan Hecht 3849
Robert McCarthy 3436
Timothy Schofield 2887
Showing posts with label Tim Schofield. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tim Schofield. Show all posts
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Schofield Wins Big in Allston-Brighton
Tim Schofield has taken a big lead in the special senate primary election results today, winning the 28 Boston precincts (mostly in Allston-Brighton) with nearly 64% of the vote:
Allston-Brighton's historically low turnout, however, means that Schofield will have difficulty holding onto this lead. While Boston's total number of votes cast was 3203, Belmont already 2858 votes cast as of 3 pm -- with around 4400 expected by the time the polls closed at 8 pm.
State representative Will Brownsberger of Belmont is the favorite to get the lion's share of those Belmont votes.
| NAME | Votes | Percent | |
| TIMOTHY N SCHOFIELD | 2061 | 63.79% | |
| ROBERT B McCARTHY | 602 | 18.63% | |
| WILLIAM BROWNSBERGER | 370 | 11.45% | |
| JONATHAN HECHT | 181 | 5.60% | |
| Write-in Votes | 17 | 0.53% |
Allston-Brighton's historically low turnout, however, means that Schofield will have difficulty holding onto this lead. While Boston's total number of votes cast was 3203, Belmont already 2858 votes cast as of 3 pm -- with around 4400 expected by the time the polls closed at 8 pm.
State representative Will Brownsberger of Belmont is the favorite to get the lion's share of those Belmont votes.
Sunday, December 11, 2011
Other Links for Background on Senate Candidates
Boston Globe has profiles of all four candidates through a questionnaire:
Boston Globe stories on 11/30 candidates forum, 12/8 candidates forum, and a more general story.
Watertown Patch and Belmont Patch stories on the same 11/30 candidates forum.
Patch also has questionnaire reponses:
WickedLocal Watertown analyzes campaign finances reports from the candidates and has stories on the 11/30 candidates forum and 12/6 candidates forum.
Boston Globe and Boston Herald endorsements both of Brownsberger.
BNN had a video camera at the Brighton candidates forum, which they were supposed to start streaming online over the weekend -- but which I don't yet see posted.
And BlueMassGroup has an open thread on the race.
Boston Globe stories on 11/30 candidates forum, 12/8 candidates forum, and a more general story.
Watertown Patch and Belmont Patch stories on the same 11/30 candidates forum.
Patch also has questionnaire reponses:
WickedLocal Watertown analyzes campaign finances reports from the candidates and has stories on the 11/30 candidates forum and 12/6 candidates forum.
Boston Globe and Boston Herald endorsements both of Brownsberger.
BNN had a video camera at the Brighton candidates forum, which they were supposed to start streaming online over the weekend -- but which I don't yet see posted.
And BlueMassGroup has an open thread on the race.
Boston Globe Coverage of Senate Candidates Forum
The Brighton senate candidates forum was covered by the Boston Globe -- currently linked to only through its Belmont or Watertown "Your Town" websites, natch.
On state funding for the Faneuil branch of the Boston Public Library:
On state funding for the Faneuil branch of the Boston Public Library:
Candidates agreed at a forum in Brighton last night that the Faneuil branch of the Boston Public Library in Oak Square, which teetered on the edge of permanent closure last year, should continue to be state-funded and kept open.On MBTA funding:
Candidates also went head-to-head on solutions for bailing the MBTA out of debt, since the area is heavily dependent on both the Green Line and multiple city buses.
Schofield said he did not think fares should rise, but that the state should funnel money into the T...
Brownsberger said he thinks the state should raise the gas tax to increase revenue dollars, which could then help fund the MBTA.
Friday, December 09, 2011
State Senate Candidates Websites
It was a pleasure to hear from all four candidates at last night's candidates forum, sponsored by the Brighton Allston Improvement Association.
It is encouraging when we hear from a slate of candidates for a particular office where every single person has an interesting background, understands many of the varied issues before our community and state, and can speak eloquently on the issues.
Many thanks go out to the BAIA for sponsoring the candidates forum, and especially to those in the organizing committee who put it on: Ruth Scheer, Joanne Laplant, Mary Cronin, Abigail Furey, Lauren Mattison, and BAIA president Anabela Gomes.
Unfortunately, we appear to have had such strong attendance that we ran out of handouts at the forum. Here are links to the four candidates websites, information that appeared on the handouts:
It is encouraging when we hear from a slate of candidates for a particular office where every single person has an interesting background, understands many of the varied issues before our community and state, and can speak eloquently on the issues.
Many thanks go out to the BAIA for sponsoring the candidates forum, and especially to those in the organizing committee who put it on: Ruth Scheer, Joanne Laplant, Mary Cronin, Abigail Furey, Lauren Mattison, and BAIA president Anabela Gomes.
Unfortunately, we appear to have had such strong attendance that we ran out of handouts at the forum. Here are links to the four candidates websites, information that appeared on the handouts:
- Rep. Will Brownsberger: www.mywillbrownsberger.com, (617) 771-8274
- Rep. Jon Hecht: www.electhecht.com, (617) 393-3501
- Bob McCarthy: www.bobmccarthy.org, (617) 612-5262
- Tim Schofield: www.timschofield.org, (617) 453-8683
Boston Globe Endorses Brownsberger for State Senate
The Boston Globe's editorial page has endorsed state representative William Brownsberger (D-Belmont) for the special election to replace Steven Tolman in the state senate's 2nd Suffolk and Middlesex seat.Tolman stepped down in October after he was elected as president of AFL-CLO in Massachusetts.
In their endorsement, the Globe's editorial board wrote:
[S]tate Representative Will Brownsberger of Belmont has a progressive record on social and environmental matters — but also a history of creative thinking about making government more effective, honest, and transparent.In making their endorsement, the Globe seems to have given an honorable mention to state representative Jonathan Hecht (D-Watertown):
[Hecht] shares Brownsberger’s emphasis on open, efficient government... He and Brownsberger have voted in similar ways.But the Globe criticized the other two candidates in the race, Timothy Schofield (D-Brighton) and Robert McCarthy (D-Watertown), for their positions on paying for health care for employees of local government:
[Schofield and McCarthy] have criticized recent efforts to help cities and towns save on spiraling employee health costs. Digging in to defend unsustainable costs shouldn’t be mistaken for progressive government; if anything, it leads to more layoffs of public workers and worse services for citizens.
Sunday, November 27, 2011
State Senate Candidates Forum Thursday, 12/8 at 6:30 pm
The Brighton Allston Improvement Association will be hosting a candidates forum for the special election for state senator in the Second Suffolk and Middlesex district seat recently vacated by Steven Tolman.
The special primary election will be on Tuesday, December 13th. Since all four candidates for the seat are Democrats, the winner of the December 13th primary will be unopposed in the January special election.
State Senate Candidates Forum
Thursday, December 8th
Meet-and-Greet: 6:00 pm; light refreshments contributed by Athan's
Candidates Forum: 6:30 - 8:00 pm
Brighton Elks Lodge
326 Washington Street, Brighton Center
Parking at rear of building (enter lot from Winship Street)
Sponsor: Brighton Allston Improvement Association
Candidates: State Rep. Will Brownsberger, State Rep. Jon Hecht, Bob McCarthy, Tim Schofield
Moderator: Michael Pahre, editor, Brighton Centered Blog
To check if you live in this district, visit www.wheredoivotema.com
The special primary election will be on Tuesday, December 13th. Since all four candidates for the seat are Democrats, the winner of the December 13th primary will be unopposed in the January special election.
State Senate Candidates Forum
Thursday, December 8th
Meet-and-Greet: 6:00 pm; light refreshments contributed by Athan's
Candidates Forum: 6:30 - 8:00 pm
Brighton Elks Lodge
326 Washington Street, Brighton Center
Parking at rear of building (enter lot from Winship Street)
Sponsor: Brighton Allston Improvement Association
Candidates: State Rep. Will Brownsberger, State Rep. Jon Hecht, Bob McCarthy, Tim Schofield
Moderator: Michael Pahre, editor, Brighton Centered Blog
To check if you live in this district, visit www.wheredoivotema.com
Friday, January 30, 2009
Schofield Resigns from BC Task Force Following BRA Board Decision
Tim Schofield today submitted to the Boston Redevelopment Authority his resignation from the BRA's Boston College Task Force today following last night's approval of BC's Institutional Master Plan by the BRA Board.His move followed the task force's reversal of its position on the 150-bed dormitory along Commonwealth Avenue proposed for BC's new Brighton Campus. Up through September 2008, the task force continued to be on record opposing all dormitories on the former St. John's Seminary land, but recently changed course with the majority on the task force supporting the 150-bed dorm -- with conditions -- following a secret meeting held by the group.
The task force was left dangling at Thursday's public hearing when Mayor Thomas Menino's aide announced that he wanted the dorm proposal removed from the IMP; Councilor Mark Ciommo and State Representatives Kevin Honan and Michael Moran subsequently reversed course from the positions they held earlier in the month to oppose the dorm proposal as part of this IMP.
Schofield declined to talk about his decision beyond the reason given in his resignation letter that "running a business in these difficult economic times requires all of my time and attention." Other members of the task force noted that he was in the minority on the dorm issue and that he appeared quite frustrated with the internal dynamics on the task force.
During their secret, internal deliberations in the past week and a half leading up to last night's meeting, several members are revealing that there has been a great deal of infighting.
Schofield led several of the task force's public meetings during the public comment periods and, other task force members note, was instrumental in drafting the text of the task force letters and trying to build consensus within the advisory group. He has been on the task force since March 2007, although he stepped down for several months in 2007 while running unsuccessfully for Allston-Brighton District 9 City Councilor.
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Happy 201st Birthday, Brighton
Today officially marks the end of the Brighton-Allston Bicentennial.
The past year brought:
The Allston-Brighton TAB has a short video with images and narration about the history of Brighton for those who want the multimedia experience.
The entire community should thank the organizing committee for the bicentennial and all of its subcommittees. And especially, we should thank the co-chairs of the bicentennial committee: Theresa Hynes and Tim Schofield. Schofield got a lousy-paying position in the process -- instead of getting a better-paid one -- and Hynes got a nice little park during the past year. I think she got the better deal.
There is one piece of unfinished business: acquisition of a new piece of open space for the community. Stay tuned.
Oh, and I almost forgot: the last day of the 200th year was supposed to have a flea sale at the site of the Brighton-Allston Heritage Museum. It snowed a lot the day before, so they postponed thefire sale flea sale until Saturday, March 8th.
I hope they didn't sell off any of those old artifacts, especially not the diorama, based on the 1875 map of Brighton -- the earliest known surveyor's map of the town -- that's got my 1865 house on it.
The past year brought:
- Opening of the Brighton-Allston Heritage Museum;
- Recreation of the human flag on the steps of Brighton High School;
- Riverfest at Herter Park along the Charles River;
- Bicentennial Garden Tour;
- Concert on the BRA's City Hall Plaza;
- Concert by the Air Force Band at Chandler's Pond;
- Allston Village Street Fair preceded by the Allston-Brighton Day Parade; and
- Gala Jubilee in the new WGBH nuclear aircraft carrier. (Who was Charlie really dancing with?)
The Allston-Brighton TAB has a short video with images and narration about the history of Brighton for those who want the multimedia experience.
The entire community should thank the organizing committee for the bicentennial and all of its subcommittees. And especially, we should thank the co-chairs of the bicentennial committee: Theresa Hynes and Tim Schofield. Schofield got a lousy-paying position in the process -- instead of getting a better-paid one -- and Hynes got a nice little park during the past year. I think she got the better deal.
There is one piece of unfinished business: acquisition of a new piece of open space for the community. Stay tuned.
Oh, and I almost forgot: the last day of the 200th year was supposed to have a flea sale at the site of the Brighton-Allston Heritage Museum. It snowed a lot the day before, so they postponed the
I hope they didn't sell off any of those old artifacts, especially not the diorama, based on the 1875 map of Brighton -- the earliest known surveyor's map of the town -- that's got my 1865 house on it.
Monday, November 05, 2007
Councilor Murphy Strikes Back at Challenger Connolly in Councilor-At-Large Race
Councilor Stephen Murphy has managed to get a mailing out attacking challenger John Connolly for the latter's anonymous mailings late last week attacking Murphy.
It reads, "We deserve better than cowardly attacks by a desperate campaign... Call John Connolly and tell him you won't stand for this Mud-Slinging! 617-327-5646" The adjectival choice of "cowardly" represents a bit of mud slung back at Connolly.
The anonymous mailings came out Thursday, and Connolly's campaign on Saturday admitted to being behind them. That Councilor Murphy was able to produce a response mailing, get it printed and mailed, and then have it appear in mailboxes today (Monday) is amazingly fast and nimble. Based on the information on the Murphy mailing, it was produced before Connolly's campaign admitted they were behind the anonymous mailing. Murphy's mailing gets into people's mailboxes the night before election day. I never received the original Connolly mailing -- but I got Murphy's mailing -- so I think the Murphy mailing's reach will go far beyond the Boston Herald and the blogosphere to connect with the electorate city-wide.
Score: Murphy 1, Connolly 0.
On other news, I got an automated message from Tim Schofield today asking me to vote for... Councilor Sam Yoon, not law partner John Connolly, in the Councilor-At-Large race.
I have also been informed that Governor Deval Patrick not only endorsed Councilor Stephen Murphy in the Councilor-At-Large race, but also Councilors Felix Arroyo and Sam Yoon.
It reads, "We deserve better than cowardly attacks by a desperate campaign... Call John Connolly and tell him you won't stand for this Mud-Slinging! 617-327-5646" The adjectival choice of "cowardly" represents a bit of mud slung back at Connolly.
The anonymous mailings came out Thursday, and Connolly's campaign on Saturday admitted to being behind them. That Councilor Murphy was able to produce a response mailing, get it printed and mailed, and then have it appear in mailboxes today (Monday) is amazingly fast and nimble. Based on the information on the Murphy mailing, it was produced before Connolly's campaign admitted they were behind the anonymous mailing. Murphy's mailing gets into people's mailboxes the night before election day. I never received the original Connolly mailing -- but I got Murphy's mailing -- so I think the Murphy mailing's reach will go far beyond the Boston Herald and the blogosphere to connect with the electorate city-wide.
Score: Murphy 1, Connolly 0.
On other news, I got an automated message from Tim Schofield today asking me to vote for... Councilor Sam Yoon, not law partner John Connolly, in the Councilor-At-Large race.
I have also been informed that Governor Deval Patrick not only endorsed Councilor Stephen Murphy in the Councilor-At-Large race, but also Councilors Felix Arroyo and Sam Yoon.
Mayor Menino Dangles a Toe Into A-B City Councilor Waters
Boston Mayor Thomas Menino has not openly endorsed any candidate for Tuesday's election of a new Allston-Brighton District 9 City Councilor. Like any election campaign in the city, word constantly swirls about the neighborhoods, wondering if the Mayor is pulling strings behind the scenes for this candidate or that. Maybe some rumors are true, others not, but without a clear endorsement, the Mayor isn't making a major move to support his favorite candidate -- if he had one.
A week ago at the Brighton Main Streets annual gala, the Mayor spoke briefly about the race. He said that he wasn't making any endorsements, but then said of candidate Mark Ciommo, who was in the crowd, that he would do a great job if elected. Ciommo's opponent, Greg Glennon, wasn't there that night.
Is Ciommo the Mayor's candidate? He was asked this in the September 17, 2007 candidates forum, when two of the other candidates nominated him as the Mayor's candidate. (Both have subsequently endorsed Ciommo following the preliminary election.) Here's what Ciommo had to say:
(In the City Councilor-At-Large race, it sounds like Councilor Stephen Murphy has received similarly nice words from the Mayor this weekend.)
Why hasn't the Mayor come out more strongly with a full-fledged endorsement of a candidate? One City Hall insider told me, "What's the upside?" After the Mayor endorsed a candidate in the East Boston special election for State Representative last month, and his candidate tanked, he must have been leery of making two bad endorsements in a row and looking like a liability. Another possibility is that the Mayor thought that Ciommo's position in the election is strong, and so he didn't need to intervene. Nonetheless, if a sitting Mayor can only think of downsides for endorsing a candidate, then how strong a position must the Mayor think he's in?
A week ago at the Brighton Main Streets annual gala, the Mayor spoke briefly about the race. He said that he wasn't making any endorsements, but then said of candidate Mark Ciommo, who was in the crowd, that he would do a great job if elected. Ciommo's opponent, Greg Glennon, wasn't there that night.
Is Ciommo the Mayor's candidate? He was asked this in the September 17, 2007 candidates forum, when two of the other candidates nominated him as the Mayor's candidate. (Both have subsequently endorsed Ciommo following the preliminary election.) Here's what Ciommo had to say:
QUESTION: Since the other candidates also closely associate you with the Mayor, is this a blessing or a curse?I'm not sure that the Mayor makes sure that the grass in the parks gets mowed, but that's beside the point. Instead, Ciommo was eager to connect anything to he could between him and the Mayor -- even mowing the grass -- to make it look like he was working with the Mayor. Methinks Ciommo counts the Mayor's good words as a blessing, no matter how well the Mayor might pretend it is a non-endorsement. (wink-wink)
CIOMMO: All I can say is that for the past 20 years in this community, I've been in an executive position for the better part of those 20 years working on the behalf of the citizens of this community -- first, as the assistant director of the Jackson-Mann Community Center, and for the past 14 years, at the Veronica Smith Senior Center. And I have to work with the Mayor. He helps provide services that I deliver to the seniors in Allston-Brighton. I have to work with the Mayor as president of Little League, to make sure our parks and playgrounds get cleaned and the fields get mowed. As a Hobart Park Neighborhood Association founding member, I had to work with the Mayor to re-design the park, organize a community build, find funding from the grounds funds to erect the ornamental fencing and the historical markers. So, I will work with the Mayor, but I've always been a strong and independent voice on behalf of the citizens of this community, and I will continue to be that as your next City Councilor.
(In the City Councilor-At-Large race, it sounds like Councilor Stephen Murphy has received similarly nice words from the Mayor this weekend.)
Why hasn't the Mayor come out more strongly with a full-fledged endorsement of a candidate? One City Hall insider told me, "What's the upside?" After the Mayor endorsed a candidate in the East Boston special election for State Representative last month, and his candidate tanked, he must have been leery of making two bad endorsements in a row and looking like a liability. Another possibility is that the Mayor thought that Ciommo's position in the election is strong, and so he didn't need to intervene. Nonetheless, if a sitting Mayor can only think of downsides for endorsing a candidate, then how strong a position must the Mayor think he's in?
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
Boston Globe Endorses Ciommo and Connolly for City Council
The Boston Globe offered two endorsements today for Boston City Council: Mark Ciommo for the Allston-Brighton District 9 seat and John Connolly for one of the Councilor-At-Large seats. They endorsed no other candidate for the Councilor-At-Large seats, even though voters may vote for up to four and four will be elected.
The Globe had previously endorsed Tim Schofield for the Allston-Brighton seat before the September 25th preliminary election. When Schofield took third place, missing the final, he endorsed Ciommo -- a path the Globe has now followed. The Globe's previous endorsement of Schofield appears to have been made without interviewing the six candidates, according to a number of them; the Globe has done a more thorough job this time by interviewing both Ciommo and Greg Glennon, according to Ciommo campaign worker Michael McLaughlin.
In their endorsement, the Globe noted that:
The Globe endorsed Connolly for Councilor-At-Large, calling him "a challenger with impressive energy and experience." They primarily cited his experience as a former school teacher -- before he left the profession to pursue a law degree -- saying that he "understands and articulates the interplay of public safety, good schools, and stable neighborhoods."
In endorsing Connolly but not other candidates, the Boston Globe might appear to have avoided the sticky problem of endorsing candidates with opposing views. But in their endorsement of both Connolly and Ciommo they had a bit of the issues clash. Connolly favors a return to neighborhood schools, but Ciommo favors only a modest change to the walk-zone assignment process (e.g., from 50 to 60%; see "public schools" audio link). Ciommo supports creating a city planning department, but Connolly opposes it.
There are also some issues on which the two agree. Connolly does join Ciommo in opposing Boston College's proposal to build undergraduate dorms on the former Seminary land, and both want BC to house all their undergraduates on their Main Campus. Both Connolly and Ciommo (audio link on "gambling, taxes") support casino gambling in general, but want neighborhood input (or a referendum) before a casino comes to East Boston.
Harry Mattison on the Allston Brighton Community Blog compares the Globe's current non-endorsements of Councilors Felix Arroyo, Michael Flaherty, Stephen Murphy, and Sam Yoon with their past endorsements of each and every one of them (some in 2003, others in 2005). Mattison asks, "Does The Globe feel that strongly positive about John Connolly or that negative about the other candidates?" The Globe is pushing an odd position in their current endorsement of only Connolly for Councilor-At-Large. They didn't use the term "bullet vote," but it sure sounds like that's what they're implying.
The Globe had previously endorsed Tim Schofield for the Allston-Brighton seat before the September 25th preliminary election. When Schofield took third place, missing the final, he endorsed Ciommo -- a path the Globe has now followed. The Globe's previous endorsement of Schofield appears to have been made without interviewing the six candidates, according to a number of them; the Globe has done a more thorough job this time by interviewing both Ciommo and Greg Glennon, according to Ciommo campaign worker Michael McLaughlin.
In their endorsement, the Globe noted that:
Ciommo's roots are deep in the neighborhood and his civic accomplishments are long...The alternative site the Globe was most likely referring to is the counter-proposal for BC to build densely on their Main Campus (e.g., on the MODS location).
Ciommo won't be pushed around, but he knows when it is time to draw the line and when it is time to negotiate with Harvard for community benefits and traffic mitigation. Even in Brighton, where Ciommo opposes the construction of a new [Boston College] dorm on land formerly owned by the Archdiocese of Boston, he suggests an alternative site.
The Globe endorsed Connolly for Councilor-At-Large, calling him "a challenger with impressive energy and experience." They primarily cited his experience as a former school teacher -- before he left the profession to pursue a law degree -- saying that he "understands and articulates the interplay of public safety, good schools, and stable neighborhoods."
In endorsing Connolly but not other candidates, the Boston Globe might appear to have avoided the sticky problem of endorsing candidates with opposing views. But in their endorsement of both Connolly and Ciommo they had a bit of the issues clash. Connolly favors a return to neighborhood schools, but Ciommo favors only a modest change to the walk-zone assignment process (e.g., from 50 to 60%; see "public schools" audio link). Ciommo supports creating a city planning department, but Connolly opposes it.
There are also some issues on which the two agree. Connolly does join Ciommo in opposing Boston College's proposal to build undergraduate dorms on the former Seminary land, and both want BC to house all their undergraduates on their Main Campus. Both Connolly and Ciommo (audio link on "gambling, taxes") support casino gambling in general, but want neighborhood input (or a referendum) before a casino comes to East Boston.
Harry Mattison on the Allston Brighton Community Blog compares the Globe's current non-endorsements of Councilors Felix Arroyo, Michael Flaherty, Stephen Murphy, and Sam Yoon with their past endorsements of each and every one of them (some in 2003, others in 2005). Mattison asks, "Does The Globe feel that strongly positive about John Connolly or that negative about the other candidates?" The Globe is pushing an odd position in their current endorsement of only Connolly for Councilor-At-Large. They didn't use the term "bullet vote," but it sure sounds like that's what they're implying.
Tuesday, October 09, 2007
Guest Column: The Finalists -- And Those Who Didn’t Quite Make It
Today we have another guest column by Mark Trachtenberg, who took time off from writing for the Allston-Brighton TAB to offer us his perspective on the September 25th preliminary municipal election for the Allston-Brighton District 9 seat on the City Council. I would like to thank him for writing another interesting contribution.
-Ed.
The Finalists -- And Those Who Didn’t Quite Make It
By Mark D. Trachtenberg
In any political campaign, organization is the single most important factor in who wins or loses, and no campaign I’ve ever been involved in as either a candidate, a campaign volunteer, an election official, or as a journalist has shown this more than the recent preliminary election for the Allston-Brighton District 9 seat on the Boston City Council. At the beginning of the campaign it appeared that the anger and fear surrounding the institutional expansion issue might be strong enough to pull Alex Selvig, the crusading businessman from Lake Street with no previous experience in organizing a political campaign, into the final election. But in the end, Selvig didn’t come close to getting enough votes, and two far more experienced candidates – Mark Ciommo and Greg Glennon – made it to the final election.
Alex Selvig’s “rookie mistake” was that in the end, he failed to put together an effective field organization for the day of the election, as he himself admitted afterwards. Selvig had plenty of lawn signs, but as U.Mass.-Boston political science professor Gary Dotterman, a former city council candidate himself notes, “Lawn signs are easy.” But like Eugene McCarthy with the Vietnam War, Howard Dean with Iraq, and William Jennings Bryan with the free coinage of silver, Alex Selvig had a profound influence on the campaign without winning it himself. He pushed the other candidates to be tougher on the colleges and universities and more independent of Mayor Menino than they would have been otherwise, and Allston-Brighton may benefit as a result. “The whole point of the campaign was to put the institutional expansion issue front and center,” Selvig said after the preliminary election.
So what can we expect as Mark Ciommo and Greg Glennon go at it in the final election? The three-percent difference between the vote totals of Ciommo and Glennon in the preliminary election may seem quite close, but a look behind the numbers tells a far different story. The quick decision of third-place finisher Tim Schofield to endorse Ciommo was fairly predictable. What Schofield might have meant when he called Ciommo “the candidate who can unify the neighborhood” is that Schofield and many of his supporters still consider Greg Glennon to be the bogeyman on sexual politics issues such as gay rights and abortion, and they view Mark Ciommo as the safe alternative: a nice guy who helps the elderly and won’t do anything that will make them lose any sleep.
Tim Schofield finished third, and not a very close third, either – he had 22 percent of the vote, compared to Mark Ciommo’s 31 percent and Greg Glennon’s 28 percent. Schofield’s unexpectedly weak showing wasn’t caused by any particular failure of his campaign organization, because he had as polished and professional an election-day effort as I’ve ever seen. It wasn’t caused by any particular failure of the candidate himself – Schofield certainly presented himself to the voters as a well-informed advocate on many neighborhood issues. But the sexual politics issues such as gay marriage and abortion have always been something of a double-edged sword for the openly gay lawyer Tim Schofield, and in this year’s district city council election, many voters who had chosen him on the strength of those issues in the 2005 Democratic primary for state representative simply didn’t show up at the polls. The numbers from three precincts near Commonwealth Avenue which Tim Schofield carried in both 2005 and 2007 tell a troubling story for Schofield, and for anybody who truly values public participation in local elections: there was more than a 50 percent decline in voter turnout between Schofield’s 2005 and 2007 races.
The sexual politics issues were almost off the table this year, and many voters who supported Schofield in 2005 apparently weren’t motivated to cast a ballot this year when more local and neighborhood-based concerns dominated the campaign. It’s a shame, really, but as the old saying goes, “you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink.” Perhaps Tim Schofield might have been helped if the Boston Globe had acted less snooty and actually covered the preliminary election campaign in its news columns rather than just throwing him a conspicuously ineffective endorsement, but we’ll never know for sure. Many candidates in Boston don’t succeed in getting elected until at least their third attempt – for example, State Representative Michael Moran and departing City Councilor Jerry McDermott – and at 38 Tim Schofield is young enough to take advantage of any number of future opportunities to run for office again.
So what can we expect from a final election contest between Mark Ciommo and Greg Glennon? The no-show-prone Glennon got his place in the final election largely on the strength of a traditional neighborhood organization led by Patrick Galvin, brother to Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin. But now Glennon finds himself in a very tough spot, tougher than the raw numbers from the preliminary election might suggest. Sure, Mark Ciommo emerged with a margin of only three percent, or about 150 votes, in the preliminary election, but there’s virtually no place for Greg Glennon to go among the people who voted in the preliminary election to make up the difference. Schofield’s 965 votes are almost all going to go straight to Mark Ciommo, with Ciommo barely having to lift a finger to get them. Much of Alex Selvig’s support around Lake Street can be described as “upscale leftist” – one Selvig neighbor whom I spoke with early in the campaign had several anti-war stickers on her car – so Greg Glennon will have little appeal to the bulk of Alex Selvig’s supporters, and Selvig himself is already reported to be supporting Ciommo. The best Glennon can hope for with 526 people (or 13 percent) who voted for Rosie Hanlon is to split them evenly with Ciommo, and even that may be a stretch.
To win in the final election, Greg Glennon will have to find a way to “expand the pie” – bring new voters into the process. Glennon has the knowledge and experience to be credible presenting himself a strong advocate on poor people’s issues from his time working on former state representative Brian Golden’s staff, but will he choose to campaign that way? Perhaps he can also point out to the voters in North Allston that he opposed the BRA's quick approval of Harvard’s proposed science complex while Ciommo spoke in favor of it, but will that particular project really matter to anybody around Oak Square in Brighton? Will Glennon even remember to show up for everything he’s supposed to show up for?
In Mark Ciommo, Greg Glennon has an opponent who’s a considerably better candidate than he was when he first ran for the District 9 city council seat in 2002 – a more polished and articulate speaker, better prepared, and getting better advice. Ciommo has a genuinely strong human service background, and the deeper roots in the neighborhood than Glennon has. In my non-betting, just-for-fun political mock casino, I’m making Mark Ciommo a 2-1 favorite to be Allston-Brighton’s next district city councilor.
But please, don’t leave the decision to a mere pundit like me. Go to the debates, read the local newspapers which do cover the campaign, talk to your neighbors, make a well-informed decision, and vote. It really is important.
-Ed.
The Finalists -- And Those Who Didn’t Quite Make It
By Mark D. Trachtenberg
In any political campaign, organization is the single most important factor in who wins or loses, and no campaign I’ve ever been involved in as either a candidate, a campaign volunteer, an election official, or as a journalist has shown this more than the recent preliminary election for the Allston-Brighton District 9 seat on the Boston City Council. At the beginning of the campaign it appeared that the anger and fear surrounding the institutional expansion issue might be strong enough to pull Alex Selvig, the crusading businessman from Lake Street with no previous experience in organizing a political campaign, into the final election. But in the end, Selvig didn’t come close to getting enough votes, and two far more experienced candidates – Mark Ciommo and Greg Glennon – made it to the final election.
Alex Selvig’s “rookie mistake” was that in the end, he failed to put together an effective field organization for the day of the election, as he himself admitted afterwards. Selvig had plenty of lawn signs, but as U.Mass.-Boston political science professor Gary Dotterman, a former city council candidate himself notes, “Lawn signs are easy.” But like Eugene McCarthy with the Vietnam War, Howard Dean with Iraq, and William Jennings Bryan with the free coinage of silver, Alex Selvig had a profound influence on the campaign without winning it himself. He pushed the other candidates to be tougher on the colleges and universities and more independent of Mayor Menino than they would have been otherwise, and Allston-Brighton may benefit as a result. “The whole point of the campaign was to put the institutional expansion issue front and center,” Selvig said after the preliminary election.
So what can we expect as Mark Ciommo and Greg Glennon go at it in the final election? The three-percent difference between the vote totals of Ciommo and Glennon in the preliminary election may seem quite close, but a look behind the numbers tells a far different story. The quick decision of third-place finisher Tim Schofield to endorse Ciommo was fairly predictable. What Schofield might have meant when he called Ciommo “the candidate who can unify the neighborhood” is that Schofield and many of his supporters still consider Greg Glennon to be the bogeyman on sexual politics issues such as gay rights and abortion, and they view Mark Ciommo as the safe alternative: a nice guy who helps the elderly and won’t do anything that will make them lose any sleep.
Tim Schofield finished third, and not a very close third, either – he had 22 percent of the vote, compared to Mark Ciommo’s 31 percent and Greg Glennon’s 28 percent. Schofield’s unexpectedly weak showing wasn’t caused by any particular failure of his campaign organization, because he had as polished and professional an election-day effort as I’ve ever seen. It wasn’t caused by any particular failure of the candidate himself – Schofield certainly presented himself to the voters as a well-informed advocate on many neighborhood issues. But the sexual politics issues such as gay marriage and abortion have always been something of a double-edged sword for the openly gay lawyer Tim Schofield, and in this year’s district city council election, many voters who had chosen him on the strength of those issues in the 2005 Democratic primary for state representative simply didn’t show up at the polls. The numbers from three precincts near Commonwealth Avenue which Tim Schofield carried in both 2005 and 2007 tell a troubling story for Schofield, and for anybody who truly values public participation in local elections: there was more than a 50 percent decline in voter turnout between Schofield’s 2005 and 2007 races.
The sexual politics issues were almost off the table this year, and many voters who supported Schofield in 2005 apparently weren’t motivated to cast a ballot this year when more local and neighborhood-based concerns dominated the campaign. It’s a shame, really, but as the old saying goes, “you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink.” Perhaps Tim Schofield might have been helped if the Boston Globe had acted less snooty and actually covered the preliminary election campaign in its news columns rather than just throwing him a conspicuously ineffective endorsement, but we’ll never know for sure. Many candidates in Boston don’t succeed in getting elected until at least their third attempt – for example, State Representative Michael Moran and departing City Councilor Jerry McDermott – and at 38 Tim Schofield is young enough to take advantage of any number of future opportunities to run for office again.
So what can we expect from a final election contest between Mark Ciommo and Greg Glennon? The no-show-prone Glennon got his place in the final election largely on the strength of a traditional neighborhood organization led by Patrick Galvin, brother to Secretary of the Commonwealth William Galvin. But now Glennon finds himself in a very tough spot, tougher than the raw numbers from the preliminary election might suggest. Sure, Mark Ciommo emerged with a margin of only three percent, or about 150 votes, in the preliminary election, but there’s virtually no place for Greg Glennon to go among the people who voted in the preliminary election to make up the difference. Schofield’s 965 votes are almost all going to go straight to Mark Ciommo, with Ciommo barely having to lift a finger to get them. Much of Alex Selvig’s support around Lake Street can be described as “upscale leftist” – one Selvig neighbor whom I spoke with early in the campaign had several anti-war stickers on her car – so Greg Glennon will have little appeal to the bulk of Alex Selvig’s supporters, and Selvig himself is already reported to be supporting Ciommo. The best Glennon can hope for with 526 people (or 13 percent) who voted for Rosie Hanlon is to split them evenly with Ciommo, and even that may be a stretch.
To win in the final election, Greg Glennon will have to find a way to “expand the pie” – bring new voters into the process. Glennon has the knowledge and experience to be credible presenting himself a strong advocate on poor people’s issues from his time working on former state representative Brian Golden’s staff, but will he choose to campaign that way? Perhaps he can also point out to the voters in North Allston that he opposed the BRA's quick approval of Harvard’s proposed science complex while Ciommo spoke in favor of it, but will that particular project really matter to anybody around Oak Square in Brighton? Will Glennon even remember to show up for everything he’s supposed to show up for?
In Mark Ciommo, Greg Glennon has an opponent who’s a considerably better candidate than he was when he first ran for the District 9 city council seat in 2002 – a more polished and articulate speaker, better prepared, and getting better advice. Ciommo has a genuinely strong human service background, and the deeper roots in the neighborhood than Glennon has. In my non-betting, just-for-fun political mock casino, I’m making Mark Ciommo a 2-1 favorite to be Allston-Brighton’s next district city councilor.
But please, don’t leave the decision to a mere pundit like me. Go to the debates, read the local newspapers which do cover the campaign, talk to your neighbors, make a well-informed decision, and vote. It really is important.
Friday, September 28, 2007
Analysis of the 9/25/07 Election Results: Why Schofield Lost
Reports of the after-election event for the Tim Schofield campaign were that, as the returns started coming in, the mood turned to "dejected", stunned, or somber. His supporters were expecting a much better result than a distant third in Tuesday's preliminary municipal election.
It is fairly clear that Mark Ciommo campaign had an effective get-out-the-vote effort on election day, resulting in a first-place finish.
Inspection of the results for Greg Glennon show that a strong majority of the Russian Jewish senior bloc voted for him -- as did the more general senior vote in the neighboring precinct -- leading to his second-place showing.
But what led to the defeat of Schofield's effort in which he missed second place by nearly 300 votes? There are two answers, in order of decreasing likelihood: (1) Failure to get-out-the-vote in what should have been his strongholds of Ward 21, particularly along Commonwealth Avenue; and (2) a split in the institutional expansion vote, particularly due to the participation of fifth-place finisher Alex Selvig.
The analysis here is based on the unofficial returns by precinct that I recently posted.
Glennon Blocs Senior Vote From Ciommo
There is little question that seniors voted heavily for Glennon in this election.
Wallingford Road's Ward 21, Precinct 13 went 303-142-57 for Glennon-Ciommo-Schofield. It wasn't a voting bloc per se, but instead the Russian Jewish senior vote broke well but not overwhelmingly for Glennon at 56%, indicating that there was no formal endorsement for any one candidate by ward boss Naakh Visoky. Compare with November 8, 2005, when incumbent Councilor Jerry McDermott carried 80% of the precinct at 507-114 against Paul Creighton -- that was a voting bloc.
But far more interesting was the senior-heavy, but not so overtly Russian, neighboring Precinct 12 in Ward 21, which includes other senior housing buildings like Covenant House. This precinct sailed into Glennon's hands 147-75 over Ciommo, which is surprising considering Ciommo's connections with seniors at his job as Executive Director of the Veronica Smith Senior Center. In 2005, the precinct went only 55%-44% for McDermott, even though McDermott had the endorsed bloc over on Wallingford Road, indicating how those two precinct votes do not always follow each other. Glennon's victory in 21/12 threw another more than 100 votes to him relative to Schofield.
I'm sure Glennon will be able to read the writing on the walls: he won a place in the finals by gaining 372 votes over Schofield from these two precincts. He's got some helpers to thank.
Ciommo was expected to do well with seniors district-wide, but that is more difficult to assess based on the precinct-level results and the lack of an exit poll.
Not Getting-Out-the-Vote in Progressive Ward 21
After seeing the 303 and 147 Glennon votes in those two precincts, the next biggest thing that stands out in the precinct results is the horrendously low voter turnout in all of the rest of Ward 21. Nine of those other 12 precincts had voter turnout of 1.6 to 5.5%. Yes, you saw that correctly, Ward 21, Precinct 8 had only 1.6% of registered voters show up at the polls, compared to a district-wide average of 12.5%!
If you ignore the two senior-heavy precincts, Ward 21 is generally known to be more progressive than its neighboring Irish Catholic Ward 22 to the west; Ward 21 should have been part of the Schofield base. Schofield did, in fact, win six of the Ward 21 precincts, but did so by getting only 12 to 20 votes in each of those six precincts. The same six precincts had 9-16% voter turnout in the municipal election of November 2005, disproportionately higher relative to the overall turnout rates. All six precincts together could barely make up the ground Glennon gained in 21/12 alone, and were nowhere close to Glennon's relative gain in 21/13.
Silver Lining for Schofield
There is one little nugget that Schofield's campaign should enjoy: he was the only candidate to get votes in the double digits (i.e., at least ten) in each and every one of the 27 precincts. Ciommo, Glennon, and Rosie Hanlon managed ten or more votes each in 20 precincts; Selvig did it in ten precincts. Schofield can take heart that he saw some broad support across the district.
Irish Catholic Vote in Ward 22 Oak Square
This really was a battleground between Ciommo and Schofield in Precincts 7 and 11, with Glennon carrying on in third place. But Precinct 13 went very big for Glennon, no doubt due to the influence of his mentor wholives here lived here until recently, former State Representative Brian Golden. When you put all three precincts together, it all went heavily for Ciommo. Glennon and
Schofield were only separated by two votes, keeping Schofield from making up ground lost on the senior vote.
Institutional Expansion Vote Split, But Could've Swung Election
The issue of institutional expansion gave rise to Selvig's candidacy, but also was a significant factor for Hanlon and Schofield -- long-time and three-month members, respectively, of the Boston College Task Force. First-time candidate Selvig carried nearly 300 votes, and they really did come from the neighborhoods adjacent to Boston College's Brighton Campus and Harvard University's Allston Campus. Selvig picked up 23% of all of his votes carrying his home Precinct 8 in Ward 22, north and west of the land formerly owned by St. John's Seminary. The other precincts he carried at least ten votes were nearly all either adjacent to 22/8 (i.e., precincts 3, 4, 9, and 10) or in the heart of Harvard's Allston country in Ward 22, Precincts 1 and 2; but in the Harvard area, he got beaten soundly by all four other candidates. In short, he carried the BC vote (barely), but Ciommo and Schofield took the Harvard vote. Overall, Ciommo edged Schofield out on the institutional expansion precincts, contrary to my prediction.
The people who stop by Brighton Centered are typically interested and involved in the institutional expansion issue. And they broke for Schofield, followed by Selvig, in that failed poll in July. Could Selvig and Hanlon, who were both active in the issue before the campaign, have driven enough institutional expansion votes away from Schofield to bump him out of second place? Quite possibly, although difficult to prove. I suspect most supporters liked Selvig because of his knowledge of the issue and aggressive stance, but not so much because of non-A-B money; Schofield shared the broad knowledge, but was far more diplomatic than aggressive on the issue in the campaign. I think this implies some degree of overlap among their supporters.
How Did My Predictions Fare?
Prediction: Voter turnout 5000 or significantly more (i.e., up to 6000).
Reality: 4521 votes, or 10% below (or up to 25% below) my prediction.
Judgment: Not bad. I think a lot of people were surprised with the lower-than-expected turnout in an election that everyone thought was high-profile (except at the Boston Globe and Boston Herald).
Prediction: Wallingford Road not vote as a bloc, but instead breaking for Glennon at 65-25-10% for Glennon-Ciommo-Schofield.
Reality: Wallingford Road not vote as a bloc, but instead breaking for Glennon at 56-26-11. Pretty damn close.
Prediction: Elderly vote 60-25-15% for Ciommo-Hanlon-Schofield in Ward 21, Precinct 12.
Reality: Elderly vote 27-8-8% for Ciommo-Hanlon-Schofield in Ward 21, Precinct 12, with Glennon carrying 53%.
Judgment: Couldn't have been more wrong. Surprise of the night for Glennon.
Prediction: Schofield carries the institutional expansion vote, with Glennon and Ciommo way behind tied for 4th place.
Reality: Ciommo carried the institutional expansion vote, with Schofield close behind and Glennon in third.
Prediction: Glennon won't carry his own precinct [i.e., Schofield takes it].
Reality: Glennon doesn't carry his own precinct -- Ciommo takes it.
Prediction: Schofield gives Ciommo a run for his money in Irish Catholic strongholds in Oak Square at 55-45 for Ciommo-Schofield in Ward 22, Precincts 7 and 11. [I mistakenly wrote 13, which is a much more conservative precinct.]
Reality: Schofield gives Ciommo a run for his money, but Glennon is a strong third. Just counting the two candidates has Ciommo-Schofield at 59-41%, pretty close.
Analysis: Schofield campaign best organized, Ciommo a little bit of a hit, Glennon organization in disarray.
Reality: On election day, Ciommo's organization got out the vote and Schofield didn't. Glennon organization's performance unclear, since so much of his vote came from blocs partnering with others.
Prediction: The race was going to be damn close between Schofield, Ciommo, and Glennon.
Reality: The race was quite close, but only between Ciommo and Glennon.
Prediction: Hanlon 675 votes, Selvig 300. [After correcting down by 25% to account for my mistake, described above, in the overall turnout.]
Reality: Hanlon 576 votes, Selvig 293.
Prediction: Schofield-Ciommo-Glennon-Hanlon-Selvig.
Reality: Ciommo-Glennon-Schofield-Hanlon-Selvig.
Prediction: The Russian vote determines second place, not first.
Reality: The Russian vote determines second place, not first -- but you might instead argue that the split of institutional expansion votes determined second place.
Summary: with odds-making like that, bring on the casinos!
It is fairly clear that Mark Ciommo campaign had an effective get-out-the-vote effort on election day, resulting in a first-place finish.
Inspection of the results for Greg Glennon show that a strong majority of the Russian Jewish senior bloc voted for him -- as did the more general senior vote in the neighboring precinct -- leading to his second-place showing.
But what led to the defeat of Schofield's effort in which he missed second place by nearly 300 votes? There are two answers, in order of decreasing likelihood: (1) Failure to get-out-the-vote in what should have been his strongholds of Ward 21, particularly along Commonwealth Avenue; and (2) a split in the institutional expansion vote, particularly due to the participation of fifth-place finisher Alex Selvig.
The analysis here is based on the unofficial returns by precinct that I recently posted.
Glennon Blocs Senior Vote From Ciommo
There is little question that seniors voted heavily for Glennon in this election.
Wallingford Road's Ward 21, Precinct 13 went 303-142-57 for Glennon-Ciommo-Schofield. It wasn't a voting bloc per se, but instead the Russian Jewish senior vote broke well but not overwhelmingly for Glennon at 56%, indicating that there was no formal endorsement for any one candidate by ward boss Naakh Visoky. Compare with November 8, 2005, when incumbent Councilor Jerry McDermott carried 80% of the precinct at 507-114 against Paul Creighton -- that was a voting bloc.
But far more interesting was the senior-heavy, but not so overtly Russian, neighboring Precinct 12 in Ward 21, which includes other senior housing buildings like Covenant House. This precinct sailed into Glennon's hands 147-75 over Ciommo, which is surprising considering Ciommo's connections with seniors at his job as Executive Director of the Veronica Smith Senior Center. In 2005, the precinct went only 55%-44% for McDermott, even though McDermott had the endorsed bloc over on Wallingford Road, indicating how those two precinct votes do not always follow each other. Glennon's victory in 21/12 threw another more than 100 votes to him relative to Schofield.
I'm sure Glennon will be able to read the writing on the walls: he won a place in the finals by gaining 372 votes over Schofield from these two precincts. He's got some helpers to thank.
Ciommo was expected to do well with seniors district-wide, but that is more difficult to assess based on the precinct-level results and the lack of an exit poll.
Not Getting-Out-the-Vote in Progressive Ward 21
After seeing the 303 and 147 Glennon votes in those two precincts, the next biggest thing that stands out in the precinct results is the horrendously low voter turnout in all of the rest of Ward 21. Nine of those other 12 precincts had voter turnout of 1.6 to 5.5%. Yes, you saw that correctly, Ward 21, Precinct 8 had only 1.6% of registered voters show up at the polls, compared to a district-wide average of 12.5%!
If you ignore the two senior-heavy precincts, Ward 21 is generally known to be more progressive than its neighboring Irish Catholic Ward 22 to the west; Ward 21 should have been part of the Schofield base. Schofield did, in fact, win six of the Ward 21 precincts, but did so by getting only 12 to 20 votes in each of those six precincts. The same six precincts had 9-16% voter turnout in the municipal election of November 2005, disproportionately higher relative to the overall turnout rates. All six precincts together could barely make up the ground Glennon gained in 21/12 alone, and were nowhere close to Glennon's relative gain in 21/13.
Silver Lining for Schofield
There is one little nugget that Schofield's campaign should enjoy: he was the only candidate to get votes in the double digits (i.e., at least ten) in each and every one of the 27 precincts. Ciommo, Glennon, and Rosie Hanlon managed ten or more votes each in 20 precincts; Selvig did it in ten precincts. Schofield can take heart that he saw some broad support across the district.
Irish Catholic Vote in Ward 22 Oak Square
This really was a battleground between Ciommo and Schofield in Precincts 7 and 11, with Glennon carrying on in third place. But Precinct 13 went very big for Glennon, no doubt due to the influence of his mentor who
Schofield were only separated by two votes, keeping Schofield from making up ground lost on the senior vote.
Institutional Expansion Vote Split, But Could've Swung Election
The issue of institutional expansion gave rise to Selvig's candidacy, but also was a significant factor for Hanlon and Schofield -- long-time and three-month members, respectively, of the Boston College Task Force. First-time candidate Selvig carried nearly 300 votes, and they really did come from the neighborhoods adjacent to Boston College's Brighton Campus and Harvard University's Allston Campus. Selvig picked up 23% of all of his votes carrying his home Precinct 8 in Ward 22, north and west of the land formerly owned by St. John's Seminary. The other precincts he carried at least ten votes were nearly all either adjacent to 22/8 (i.e., precincts 3, 4, 9, and 10) or in the heart of Harvard's Allston country in Ward 22, Precincts 1 and 2; but in the Harvard area, he got beaten soundly by all four other candidates. In short, he carried the BC vote (barely), but Ciommo and Schofield took the Harvard vote. Overall, Ciommo edged Schofield out on the institutional expansion precincts, contrary to my prediction.
The people who stop by Brighton Centered are typically interested and involved in the institutional expansion issue. And they broke for Schofield, followed by Selvig, in that failed poll in July. Could Selvig and Hanlon, who were both active in the issue before the campaign, have driven enough institutional expansion votes away from Schofield to bump him out of second place? Quite possibly, although difficult to prove. I suspect most supporters liked Selvig because of his knowledge of the issue and aggressive stance, but not so much because of non-A-B money; Schofield shared the broad knowledge, but was far more diplomatic than aggressive on the issue in the campaign. I think this implies some degree of overlap among their supporters.
How Did My Predictions Fare?
Prediction: Voter turnout 5000 or significantly more (i.e., up to 6000).
Reality: 4521 votes, or 10% below (or up to 25% below) my prediction.
Judgment: Not bad. I think a lot of people were surprised with the lower-than-expected turnout in an election that everyone thought was high-profile (except at the Boston Globe and Boston Herald).
Prediction: Wallingford Road not vote as a bloc, but instead breaking for Glennon at 65-25-10% for Glennon-Ciommo-Schofield.
Reality: Wallingford Road not vote as a bloc, but instead breaking for Glennon at 56-26-11. Pretty damn close.
Prediction: Elderly vote 60-25-15% for Ciommo-Hanlon-Schofield in Ward 21, Precinct 12.
Reality: Elderly vote 27-8-8% for Ciommo-Hanlon-Schofield in Ward 21, Precinct 12, with Glennon carrying 53%.
Judgment: Couldn't have been more wrong. Surprise of the night for Glennon.
Prediction: Schofield carries the institutional expansion vote, with Glennon and Ciommo way behind tied for 4th place.
Reality: Ciommo carried the institutional expansion vote, with Schofield close behind and Glennon in third.
Prediction: Glennon won't carry his own precinct [i.e., Schofield takes it].
Reality: Glennon doesn't carry his own precinct -- Ciommo takes it.
Prediction: Schofield gives Ciommo a run for his money in Irish Catholic strongholds in Oak Square at 55-45 for Ciommo-Schofield in Ward 22, Precincts 7 and 11. [I mistakenly wrote 13, which is a much more conservative precinct.]
Reality: Schofield gives Ciommo a run for his money, but Glennon is a strong third. Just counting the two candidates has Ciommo-Schofield at 59-41%, pretty close.
Analysis: Schofield campaign best organized, Ciommo a little bit of a hit, Glennon organization in disarray.
Reality: On election day, Ciommo's organization got out the vote and Schofield didn't. Glennon organization's performance unclear, since so much of his vote came from blocs partnering with others.
Prediction: The race was going to be damn close between Schofield, Ciommo, and Glennon.
Reality: The race was quite close, but only between Ciommo and Glennon.
Prediction: Hanlon 675 votes, Selvig 300. [After correcting down by 25% to account for my mistake, described above, in the overall turnout.]
Reality: Hanlon 576 votes, Selvig 293.
Prediction: Schofield-Ciommo-Glennon-Hanlon-Selvig.
Reality: Ciommo-Glennon-Schofield-Hanlon-Selvig.
Prediction: The Russian vote determines second place, not first.
Reality: The Russian vote determines second place, not first -- but you might instead argue that the split of institutional expansion votes determined second place.
Summary: with odds-making like that, bring on the casinos!
Precinct Results of the Preliminary Municipal Election on 9/25/07
Here are the unofficial precinct-by-precinct results from Tuesday's preliminary municipal election for the Allston-Brighton District 9 City Council seat. The City of Boston does not publish the unofficial results on their website; the official results will be available next week, and will eventually make it onto their website (possibly after the November election).
I've put the results into two tables: the first one has the number of votes per candidate in each precinct; the second has the percentage of vote for each candidate in each precinct. They are preceded by a map of District 9's wards and precincts.
"N_reg" is the number of registered voters in that precinct
"N_vote" is the number of valid votes cast in that precinct
"%Vote" is the percentage of registered voters casting a valid vote
Read this accompanying post for an analysis of what these precinct-by-precinct numbers mean.
Allston-Brighton District 9 City Council Election Results
Allston-Brighton District 9 City Council Election Results
NOTE: at least one person has reported a problem with the formatting, in that some of the right-hand columns appear missing. If you have such a problem, please email me and tell me what operating system (MS Windows, Mac OS X, linux) and browser (IE, firefox, opera, konqueror) you are using. Later today or over the weekend I will post a PDF version and link to it for easier printing.
I've put the results into two tables: the first one has the number of votes per candidate in each precinct; the second has the percentage of vote for each candidate in each precinct. They are preceded by a map of District 9's wards and precincts.
"N_reg" is the number of registered voters in that precinct
"N_vote" is the number of valid votes cast in that precinct
"%Vote" is the percentage of registered voters casting a valid vote
Read this accompanying post for an analysis of what these precinct-by-precinct numbers mean.
| Ward | Prec | N_reg | N_vote | %Vote | Ciommo | Glennon | Hanlon | Jenner | Schofield | Selvig |
| 21 | 3 | 1531 | 34 | 2.2 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 0 |
| 21 | 4 | 1114 | 36 | 3.2 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 20 | 2 |
| 21 | 5 | 1291 | 38 | 2.9 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 1 | 11 | 5 |
| 21 | 6 | 1116 | 145 | 13.0 | 66 | 18 | 22 | 0 | 36 | 3 |
| 21 | 7 | 1349 | 63 | 4.7 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 17 | 16 |
| 21 | 8 | 1545 | 24 | 1.6 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 12 | 1 |
| 21 | 9 | 1694 | 93 | 5.5 | 12 | 43 | 7 | 0 | 28 | 3 |
| 21 | 10 | 1213 | 160 | 13.2 | 60 | 31 | 14 | 3 | 44 | 8 |
| 21 | 11 | 1533 | 82 | 5.3 | 30 | 11 | 18 | 0 | 18 | 5 |
| 21 | 12 | 1595 | 278 | 17.4 | 75 | 147 | 22 | 3 | 21 | 10 |
| 21 | 13 | 1961 | 542 | 27.6 | 142 | 303 | 24 | 5 | 57 | 11 |
| 21 | 14 | 868 | 31 | 3.6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 19 | 0 |
| 21 | 15 | 1219 | 38 | 3.1 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 19 | 4 |
| 21 | 16 | 1574 | 180 | 11.4 | 9 | 96 | 22 | 1 | 46 | 6 |
| 22 | 1 | 1880 | 302 | 16.1 | 99 | 84 | 29 | 2 | 70 | 17 |
| 22 | 2 | 1791 | 259 | 14.5 | 75 | 41 | 31 | 2 | 85 | 25 |
| 22 | 3 | 1568 | 254 | 16.2 | 101 | 40 | 56 | 0 | 39 | 18 |
| 22 | 4 | 1107 | 224 | 20.2 | 62 | 55 | 24 | 3 | 63 | 16 |
| 22 | 5 | 875 | 113 | 12.9 | 38 | 39 | 15 | 1 | 16 | 4 |
| 22 | 6 | 858 | 127 | 14.8 | 54 | 12 | 27 | 0 | 30 | 4 |
| 22 | 7 | 1390 | 198 | 14.2 | 70 | 34 | 23 | 0 | 62 | 9 |
| 22 | 8 | 1350 | 241 | 17.9 | 46 | 45 | 39 | 1 | 43 | 67 |
| 22 | 9 | 1315 | 132 | 10.0 | 36 | 10 | 34 | 0 | 28 | 24 |
| 22 | 10 | 1509 | 287 | 19.0 | 124 | 45 | 40 | 1 | 58 | 19 |
| 22 | 11 | 966 | 206 | 21.3 | 98 | 28 | 18 | 1 | 56 | 5 |
| 22 | 12 | 1007 | 253 | 25.1 | 93 | 73 | 38 | 1 | 40 | 8 |
| 22 | 13 | 871 | 181 | 20.8 | 69 | 73 | 21 | 0 | 15 | 3 | Total | 36090 | 4521 | 12.5 | 1406 | 1250 | 576 | 28 | 965 | 293 |
| Ward | Prec | N_reg | N_vote | %Vote | Ciommo | Glennon | Hanlon | Jenner | Schofield | Selvig |
| 21 | 3 | 1531 | 34 | 2.2 | 26.5 | 14.7 | 23.5 | 0.0 | 35.3 | 0.0 |
| 21 | 4 | 1114 | 36 | 3.2 | 11.1 | 8.3 | 13.9 | 2.8 | 55.6 | 5.6 |
| 21 | 5 | 1291 | 38 | 2.9 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 34.2 | 2.6 | 28.9 | 13.2 |
| 21 | 6 | 1116 | 145 | 13.0 | 45.5 | 12.4 | 15.2 | 0.0 | 24.8 | 2.1 |
| 21 | 7 | 1349 | 63 | 4.7 | 25.4 | 7.9 | 11.1 | 3.2 | 27.0 | 25.4 |
| 21 | 8 | 1545 | 24 | 1.6 | 8.3 | 12.5 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 4.2 |
| 21 | 9 | 1694 | 93 | 5.5 | 12.9 | 46.2 | 7.5 | 0.0 | 30.1 | 3.2 |
| 21 | 10 | 1213 | 160 | 13.2 | 37.5 | 19.4 | 8.8 | 1.9 | 27.5 | 5.0 |
| 21 | 11 | 1533 | 82 | 5.3 | 36.6 | 13.4 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 6.1 |
| 21 | 12 | 1595 | 278 | 17.4 | 27.0 | 52.9 | 7.9 | 1.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 |
| 21 | 13 | 1961 | 542 | 27.6 | 26.2 | 55.9 | 4.4 | 0.9 | 10.5 | 2.0 |
| 21 | 14 | 868 | 31 | 3.6 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 19.4 | 0.0 | 61.3 | 0.0 |
| 21 | 15 | 1219 | 38 | 3.1 | 18.4 | 2.6 | 18.4 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 10.5 |
| 21 | 16 | 1574 | 180 | 11.4 | 5.0 | 53.3 | 12.2 | 0.6 | 25.6 | 3.3 |
| 22 | 1 | 1880 | 302 | 16.1 | 32.8 | 27.8 | 9.6 | 0.7 | 23.2 | 5.6 |
| 22 | 2 | 1791 | 259 | 14.5 | 29.0 | 15.8 | 12.0 | 0.8 | 32.8 | 9.7 |
| 22 | 3 | 1568 | 254 | 16.2 | 39.8 | 15.7 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 15.4 | 7.1 |
| 22 | 4 | 1107 | 224 | 20.2 | 27.7 | 24.6 | 10.7 | 1.3 | 28.1 | 7.1 |
| 22 | 5 | 875 | 113 | 12.9 | 33.6 | 34.5 | 13.3 | 0.9 | 14.2 | 3.5 |
| 22 | 6 | 858 | 127 | 14.8 | 42.5 | 9.4 | 21.3 | 0.0 | 23.6 | 3.1 |
| 22 | 7 | 1390 | 198 | 14.2 | 35.4 | 17.2 | 11.6 | 0.0 | 31.3 | 4.5 |
| 22 | 8 | 1350 | 241 | 17.9 | 19.1 | 18.7 | 16.2 | 0.4 | 17.8 | 27.8 |
| 22 | 9 | 1315 | 132 | 10.0 | 27.3 | 7.6 | 25.8 | 0.0 | 21.2 | 18.2 |
| 22 | 10 | 1509 | 287 | 19.0 | 43.2 | 15.7 | 13.9 | 0.3 | 20.2 | 6.6 |
| 22 | 11 | 966 | 206 | 21.3 | 47.6 | 13.6 | 8.7 | 0.5 | 27.2 | 2.4 |
| 22 | 12 | 1007 | 253 | 25.1 | 36.8 | 28.9 | 15.0 | 0.4 | 15.8 | 3.2 |
| 22 | 13 | 871 | 181 | 20.8 | 38.1 | 40.3 | 11.6 | 0.0 | 8.3 | 1.7 | Total | 36090 | 4521 | 12.5 | 31.1 | 27.6 | 12.7 | 0.6 | 21.3 | 6.5 |
NOTE: at least one person has reported a problem with the formatting, in that some of the right-hand columns appear missing. If you have such a problem, please email me and tell me what operating system (MS Windows, Mac OS X, linux) and browser (IE, firefox, opera, konqueror) you are using. Later today or over the weekend I will post a PDF version and link to it for easier printing.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Schofield Endorses Ciommo for City Council
Tim Schofield, third-place finisher in Tuesday's preliminary election for Allston-Brighton District 9 City Councilor, has endorsed first-place finisher Mark Ciommo. Harry Mattison has posted the full press release on the Allston Brighton Community Blog.
This move is not unexpected: Schofield's progressive positions on social issues of the day are likely a closer match to Ciommo than to Greg Glennon, the second-place finisher, although this is not exactly certain. Schofield and Ciommo have both pitched themselves as progressive to the online community BlueMassGroup. The endorsement statement, however, makes no note of social issues; instead, Schofield calls Ciommo the "unifying leader that this community needs."
This move is not unexpected: Schofield's progressive positions on social issues of the day are likely a closer match to Ciommo than to Greg Glennon, the second-place finisher, although this is not exactly certain. Schofield and Ciommo have both pitched themselves as progressive to the online community BlueMassGroup. The endorsement statement, however, makes no note of social issues; instead, Schofield calls Ciommo the "unifying leader that this community needs."
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Watching the Precinct Numbers Come In for the District 9 Race
As the election results updated this evening, they did not show which precincts were coming in. But it was clear to me by a jump between N=9 and N=16 that Wallingford Road's Ward 21, Precinct 13 was included.
Going through the numbers: Wallingford Road split between Ciommo and Glennon, but was leaning to Ciommo.
Why? The top three candidates -- Ciommo, Glennon, and Schofield -- combined for 3621 votes overall in 27 precincts. Assume 600 of those came from Ward 21, Precinct 13, leaving 3021 in 26 precincts, or 116/precinct. Six of the precincts in the jump from N=9 to 16 should have carried 696 votes for the three candidates, but all seven carried 1260, meaning that the seventh precinct -- Wallingford Road -- came in with 564 votes. (Close enough to my assumption of 600 votes.)
Who did the Wallingford Road votes break to? I just made a simple model guess of 260-260-44 for Wallingford Road's precinct vote, removed those from the overall numbers, then used that 26-precinct overall vote to estimate the vote for six of the seven precincts in the N=9 to 16 jump. Removing those six precincts gives iteration number one for the Wallingford Road vote, fairly close to my initial model guess. So I just iterate through the procedure again, narrowing in on the final answer. Pretty close to convergence with just one iteration.
Answer: the precinct went something like 286-221-58 for Ciommo-Glennon-Schofield, i.e., a split vote leaning Ciommo. Based on these numbers, the ward boss, Naakh Visoky, must not have endorsed a candidate. The voters followed their consciences between Ciommo, the director of a senior center who delivers care to them daily, and Glennon, the socially conservative candidate in the race who they know through beloved former State Representative Brian Golden.
Without Wallingford Road, Ciommo would have still made the final with Glennon. But if the Wallingford Road had gone as a bloc to Ciommo instead of splitting with Glennon, then Wednesday we might be starting a re-count for second place between Glennon and Schofield.
Wallingford Road's Ward 21, Precinct 13 therefore determined second place in this election, not first.
OK, OK, OK... I'll wait for the precinct-by-precinct numbers to come in before setting that statement in stone.
Going through the numbers: Wallingford Road split between Ciommo and Glennon, but was leaning to Ciommo.
Why? The top three candidates -- Ciommo, Glennon, and Schofield -- combined for 3621 votes overall in 27 precincts. Assume 600 of those came from Ward 21, Precinct 13, leaving 3021 in 26 precincts, or 116/precinct. Six of the precincts in the jump from N=9 to 16 should have carried 696 votes for the three candidates, but all seven carried 1260, meaning that the seventh precinct -- Wallingford Road -- came in with 564 votes. (Close enough to my assumption of 600 votes.)
Who did the Wallingford Road votes break to? I just made a simple model guess of 260-260-44 for Wallingford Road's precinct vote, removed those from the overall numbers, then used that 26-precinct overall vote to estimate the vote for six of the seven precincts in the N=9 to 16 jump. Removing those six precincts gives iteration number one for the Wallingford Road vote, fairly close to my initial model guess. So I just iterate through the procedure again, narrowing in on the final answer. Pretty close to convergence with just one iteration.
Answer: the precinct went something like 286-221-58 for Ciommo-Glennon-Schofield, i.e., a split vote leaning Ciommo. Based on these numbers, the ward boss, Naakh Visoky, must not have endorsed a candidate. The voters followed their consciences between Ciommo, the director of a senior center who delivers care to them daily, and Glennon, the socially conservative candidate in the race who they know through beloved former State Representative Brian Golden.
Without Wallingford Road, Ciommo would have still made the final with Glennon. But if the Wallingford Road had gone as a bloc to Ciommo instead of splitting with Glennon, then Wednesday we might be starting a re-count for second place between Glennon and Schofield.
Wallingford Road's Ward 21, Precinct 13 therefore determined second place in this election, not first.
OK, OK, OK... I'll wait for the precinct-by-precinct numbers to come in before setting that statement in stone.
Ciommo and Glennon Make Final in A-B District 9 City Council Race
Final unofficial results of the District 9 City Council election on September 25, 2007, with all precincts reporting:
| DIST. 9 CITY COUNCILOR | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | |||
| Number of Precincts | 27 | ||
| Precincts Reporting | 27 | 100.0 % | |
| Vote For | 1 | ||
| Total Votes | 4521 | ||
| MARK S. CIOMMO | 1406 | 31.10% | |
| GREGORY J. GLENNON | 1250 | 27.65% | |
| TIMOTHY N. SCHOFIELD | 965 | 21.34% | |
| ROSIE HANLON | 576 | 12.74% | |
| ALESSANDRO SELVIG | 293 | 6.48% | |
| JAMES JOSEPH JENNER | 28 | 0.62% | |
| Write-in Votes | 3 | 0.07% | |
Predictions for the Allston-Brighton District 9 City Council Election
I am putting up this post a few minutes before the polls close tonight. This post does not represent any endorsement, preference, or bias. It is only my best guess at who will win this race based on past election overall results, voting trends by precinct, exuberance of voters, perception of how well candidates have connected with voters, etc. I am no expert on polls, precincts, get-out-the-vote-mobiles, and the like. I just talk to a lot of people, whenever I can, and try to see whose politics they latch onto.
If I haven't offered enough disclaimers yet, let me add another: I may become the silliest looking, ignorant goon after the results come in tonight. But I'll put my predictions out there because, hey, it's worth a shot. And you can all heckle me about my errors... until November 6.
Predictions for the Allston-Brighton District 9 City Council Preliminary Election
Summary: This election is going to be damn close.
Total Number of Votes Cast? There were a bit over 3200 votes in the 2005 municipal preliminary and 6000 votes in the 2005 municipal election, while there were around 3750 in Rep. Moran's district for the special primary election in 2005; Rep. Moran and Rep. Honan's districts roughly split City Council District 9 in half. This race has so much interest, I'd expect a good turnout of at least 5000 for this municipal primary election -- if not significantly more.
Wallingford Road. On Saturday morning, Mark Alford joined Patrick Galvin in planting a Greg Glennon sign on his front yard. Since I've never seen a Bill Galvin sign on Bill Galvin's lawn, I can't imagine its lack of a Glennon sign means anything. The Galvin-Alford-Galvin trifecta is signalling to the Wallingford Road voter bloc, as well as other long-term Galvin supporters in Brighton, which way to vote.
But Glennon was a no-show for two candidate forums last week, and no one could get hard confirmation where he was. The most common rumors were a fundraiser on one day and visiting Wallingford Road on the other, but I must emphasize that those are unconfirmed reports -- Glennon hasn't been answering his phone when I call. If the string-pullers are pushing Glennon, then why might he have been spending time over there working on the vote?
I am betting on no uniform voting-bloc coming out of Wallingford Road today. Instead, the elderly, mostly Russian Jews, are voting their consciences not their ward boss, breaking 65-25-10% for Glennon-Mark Ciommo-Tim Schofield. Schofield? Councilor Sam Yoon pulled 150 at-large votes in that precinct in 2005 (with 4-way voting), so Schofield may pick up half of them. Glennon is their comfortable choice because of his socially conservative views, particularly on gay rights and abortion, while Ciommo has been vocal in playing to the left in this campaign. The precinct delivered 420 and 631 District 9 votes in the 2005 preliminary and municipal election, but 858 for state representative in 2006 general election; expect at least 600 votes for this turnout-heavy precinct (Ward 21, Precinct 13) in a well-publicized race.
Institutional Expansion Vote. This voting bloc has firmed up into a strong contingent since this City Council seat was last open. The neighborhoods are well-informed and increasingly well-organized. Think of at least 300 activists (including spouses) involved near BC and 500 around Harvard, and you've got quite a bloc of educated, civic-minded people who have far higher rates of turnout than the general population.
Alex Selvig's "protest candidacy" might seem the odds-on favorite, but a little nugget argues otherwise: an online poll I had up in late July (until one candidate sent hordes of online voters to the polls for two hours, completely reversing the results) showed Schofield winning the internet-active crowd handily over Selvig. Rosie Hanlon picked up a handful of votes, but Ciommo and Glennon were nearly zero. Amongst this crowd, I hear Schofield's name mentioned most. Selvig's bump up and down the last few days won't change it much at all: his supporters are loyal, and virtually everyone had decided on their candidate well before this. Want to see if Schofield can trump Selvig among this crowd? Watch the results come in for Ward 22, Precinct 8 (BC neighbors) or 22/1 (Harvard neighbors and Glennon's home) -- and that Glennon won't carry his own precinct. I am betting 45-30-15-5-5 Schofield-Selvig-Hanlon-Glennon-Ciommo, where Glennon's votes mostly come from the Galvin-Alford-Galvin trifecta and their friends.
Irish Catholic Stronghold. The area near to the now-closed Our Lady of Presentation (aka Presentation School) consists of moderate, and educated, voters in a stable neighborhood of owner-occupied housing twice the A-B average. It was former Councilor Jerry McDermott's stronghold, and will be the primary battle-ground between Schofield and Ciommo. If Schofield can battle to a near-tie with Ciommo, look for Schofield to run away overall. Votes to watch are Ward 22, Precinct 7 (to the south) and 22/13 (to the north). Predict 55-45 Ciommo-Schofield. Note that Hanlon does well with the Catholic vote across Brighton, but this is hard to tell from individual precinct results.
Small Business Owners. They just love Rosie. One after another tells of a story about how she helped them do a promo to drum up business. The problem is that there's just not that many votes available here, particularly since some live out of the district. There's no way to track this vote via precincts; we would need a true exit poll. There may be 200 votes here, and it'll break heavily for Hanlon.
Elderly / Seniors. Some of the senior vote is already accounted for in the Wallingford Road precinct, but there are still many more in the B'nai Brith housing area, as well as in houses they've occupied for 30-50 years (or more). Ciommo, Ciommo, Ciommo. If they managed to meet Hanlon, she has a shot at a good piece of the group. Look for 60-25-15 for Ciommo-Hanlon-Schofield in Ward 21, Precinct 12 -- which carries a number of likely voters second only to Wallingford Road in 21/13, so a big plus for Ciommo.
"Old-boys", but not quite seniors. Ciommo's base, and the ones who put up all those lawn signs in the first few days of the election, are 40-55 year-old guys who used to play ball with Ciommo. They can't imagine doing anything but voting for him. Three hundred lawn signs deliver at least 300 votes in this demographic. They are scattered all around town, but look for their votes in Ciommo's old stomping grounds in Ward 22, Precinct 11 in the vicinity of Hobart Park. The problem for Ciommo is that this kind of precinct -- parallel to A-B in general -- has been steadily moving out to the suburbs, leaving a demographic with a plurality of younger people (one-third) in the 25-34 age bracket. If Ciommo has trouble in 22/11, then he'll have trouble overall in A-B -- a direct result of the nature of our neighborhood's demographic trends working against his base.
Hispanic/Brazilian. This constituency is highly under-represented, since many of the Brazilians, for example, move to the suburbs once they naturalize and set down roots. If Selvig could find these voters, they're his because of his language ability. He must've had a flyer written in Spanish... but I never saw it. Probably a couple of hundred votes for Selvig if he is making a concerted effort to knock on doors and walk people to the polls. Sadly, I doubt the turnout side will happen. Hispanic residents are 14% overall in A-B, but look to a place like Ward 22, Precinct 2 for a higher concentration near 20%; note that the Hispanic vote will get mixed up with the institutional expansion vote in precincts like this one. (Note to everyone: I can't figure out where the largest voting turnout of Hispanic voters will be... I am only stabbing in the dark based on census data, which is not the same. So this is one subject on which I expect ridicule!)
Voter Exuberance. Schofield gets this because he is very appealing to the young crowd; no one else has made a dent in that constituency.
Well-Run Campaigns. Glennon stands out for an apparent organizational collapse in the last few weeks: two missed public events; phone calls not answered or returned, no phone number listed on his website, unlisted home phone number; useless push polling in the last couple of weeks, instead of real phone calling; sloppy campaign finance form indicating lack of organizational support; etc. Ciommo's organization -- even though apparently farmed out as consulting work at Sage Systems (i.e., 90% of his expenditures were for "consulting"), and being run in a professional manner -- showed a series of mis-steps across the spectrum: failing to buy his own web domain prior to sending it out on cards; taking three months to put up a website; making more problems than he solved while trying to put out fires on gay marriage and domestic partnerships; giving excessively brief answers to questions and questionnaires; pitching himself as a progressive while simultaneously trying to appeal to the conservative Russian Jewish elderly vote; etc. But they answer their phones, and make a lot of personal connections, so I expect organizational issues to be only a relatively small hit.
Schofield, on the other hand, has run a smooth and well-oiled political machine, and Hanlon comes in a close second. Selvig's organization improved as the campaign went along, but lack of visible supporters outside the first candidates forum, no manager until well into the campaign, the need to appeal to an online forum for warm bodies, etc., meant that he was catching up a lot of lost ground. "Protest candidates" aren't supposed to be about smoothly-run campaigns, anyway.
Conclusion: Schofield ekes out a small victory by 200 votes; watch his performance in the stable, owner-occupied neighborhoods as the bell-wether of his overall performance to determine if he squeaks past Ciommo or beats him soundly. Second-place is too close to call between Ciommo and Glennon, both in the neighborhood of 1500 votes. Glennon pulls off second-place (or a close third) if, and only if, Naakh Visoky decides to deliver a full voting bloc to him; otherwise, Glennon falls to third, if not fourth, because he's just not carrying strong votes in the more moderate areas (fought over by Ciommo and Schofield) and the institutional border regions (fought over by Schofield and Selvig). Hanlon comes in fourth with around 900 votes (or pulls off third if the Russians endorse or lean Ciommo). First-time candidate Selvig garners a respectable 400, a result of hard work in places many other candidates didn't tread, and thinks about running in a future election.
Catch the drift here? The Russian vote determines second place, not first. I'm not sure they're going to be happy when they realize they aren't in the driver's seat anymore in A-B elections.
If I haven't offered enough disclaimers yet, let me add another: I may become the silliest looking, ignorant goon after the results come in tonight. But I'll put my predictions out there because, hey, it's worth a shot. And you can all heckle me about my errors... until November 6.
Predictions for the Allston-Brighton District 9 City Council Preliminary Election
Summary: This election is going to be damn close.
Total Number of Votes Cast? There were a bit over 3200 votes in the 2005 municipal preliminary and 6000 votes in the 2005 municipal election, while there were around 3750 in Rep. Moran's district for the special primary election in 2005; Rep. Moran and Rep. Honan's districts roughly split City Council District 9 in half. This race has so much interest, I'd expect a good turnout of at least 5000 for this municipal primary election -- if not significantly more.
Wallingford Road. On Saturday morning, Mark Alford joined Patrick Galvin in planting a Greg Glennon sign on his front yard. Since I've never seen a Bill Galvin sign on Bill Galvin's lawn, I can't imagine its lack of a Glennon sign means anything. The Galvin-Alford-Galvin trifecta is signalling to the Wallingford Road voter bloc, as well as other long-term Galvin supporters in Brighton, which way to vote.
But Glennon was a no-show for two candidate forums last week, and no one could get hard confirmation where he was. The most common rumors were a fundraiser on one day and visiting Wallingford Road on the other, but I must emphasize that those are unconfirmed reports -- Glennon hasn't been answering his phone when I call. If the string-pullers are pushing Glennon, then why might he have been spending time over there working on the vote?
I am betting on no uniform voting-bloc coming out of Wallingford Road today. Instead, the elderly, mostly Russian Jews, are voting their consciences not their ward boss, breaking 65-25-10% for Glennon-Mark Ciommo-Tim Schofield. Schofield? Councilor Sam Yoon pulled 150 at-large votes in that precinct in 2005 (with 4-way voting), so Schofield may pick up half of them. Glennon is their comfortable choice because of his socially conservative views, particularly on gay rights and abortion, while Ciommo has been vocal in playing to the left in this campaign. The precinct delivered 420 and 631 District 9 votes in the 2005 preliminary and municipal election, but 858 for state representative in 2006 general election; expect at least 600 votes for this turnout-heavy precinct (Ward 21, Precinct 13) in a well-publicized race.
Institutional Expansion Vote. This voting bloc has firmed up into a strong contingent since this City Council seat was last open. The neighborhoods are well-informed and increasingly well-organized. Think of at least 300 activists (including spouses) involved near BC and 500 around Harvard, and you've got quite a bloc of educated, civic-minded people who have far higher rates of turnout than the general population.
Alex Selvig's "protest candidacy" might seem the odds-on favorite, but a little nugget argues otherwise: an online poll I had up in late July (until one candidate sent hordes of online voters to the polls for two hours, completely reversing the results) showed Schofield winning the internet-active crowd handily over Selvig. Rosie Hanlon picked up a handful of votes, but Ciommo and Glennon were nearly zero. Amongst this crowd, I hear Schofield's name mentioned most. Selvig's bump up and down the last few days won't change it much at all: his supporters are loyal, and virtually everyone had decided on their candidate well before this. Want to see if Schofield can trump Selvig among this crowd? Watch the results come in for Ward 22, Precinct 8 (BC neighbors) or 22/1 (Harvard neighbors and Glennon's home) -- and that Glennon won't carry his own precinct. I am betting 45-30-15-5-5 Schofield-Selvig-Hanlon-Glennon-Ciommo, where Glennon's votes mostly come from the Galvin-Alford-Galvin trifecta and their friends.
Irish Catholic Stronghold. The area near to the now-closed Our Lady of Presentation (aka Presentation School) consists of moderate, and educated, voters in a stable neighborhood of owner-occupied housing twice the A-B average. It was former Councilor Jerry McDermott's stronghold, and will be the primary battle-ground between Schofield and Ciommo. If Schofield can battle to a near-tie with Ciommo, look for Schofield to run away overall. Votes to watch are Ward 22, Precinct 7 (to the south) and 22/13 (to the north). Predict 55-45 Ciommo-Schofield. Note that Hanlon does well with the Catholic vote across Brighton, but this is hard to tell from individual precinct results.
Small Business Owners. They just love Rosie. One after another tells of a story about how she helped them do a promo to drum up business. The problem is that there's just not that many votes available here, particularly since some live out of the district. There's no way to track this vote via precincts; we would need a true exit poll. There may be 200 votes here, and it'll break heavily for Hanlon.
Elderly / Seniors. Some of the senior vote is already accounted for in the Wallingford Road precinct, but there are still many more in the B'nai Brith housing area, as well as in houses they've occupied for 30-50 years (or more). Ciommo, Ciommo, Ciommo. If they managed to meet Hanlon, she has a shot at a good piece of the group. Look for 60-25-15 for Ciommo-Hanlon-Schofield in Ward 21, Precinct 12 -- which carries a number of likely voters second only to Wallingford Road in 21/13, so a big plus for Ciommo.
"Old-boys", but not quite seniors. Ciommo's base, and the ones who put up all those lawn signs in the first few days of the election, are 40-55 year-old guys who used to play ball with Ciommo. They can't imagine doing anything but voting for him. Three hundred lawn signs deliver at least 300 votes in this demographic. They are scattered all around town, but look for their votes in Ciommo's old stomping grounds in Ward 22, Precinct 11 in the vicinity of Hobart Park. The problem for Ciommo is that this kind of precinct -- parallel to A-B in general -- has been steadily moving out to the suburbs, leaving a demographic with a plurality of younger people (one-third) in the 25-34 age bracket. If Ciommo has trouble in 22/11, then he'll have trouble overall in A-B -- a direct result of the nature of our neighborhood's demographic trends working against his base.
Hispanic/Brazilian. This constituency is highly under-represented, since many of the Brazilians, for example, move to the suburbs once they naturalize and set down roots. If Selvig could find these voters, they're his because of his language ability. He must've had a flyer written in Spanish... but I never saw it. Probably a couple of hundred votes for Selvig if he is making a concerted effort to knock on doors and walk people to the polls. Sadly, I doubt the turnout side will happen. Hispanic residents are 14% overall in A-B, but look to a place like Ward 22, Precinct 2 for a higher concentration near 20%; note that the Hispanic vote will get mixed up with the institutional expansion vote in precincts like this one. (Note to everyone: I can't figure out where the largest voting turnout of Hispanic voters will be... I am only stabbing in the dark based on census data, which is not the same. So this is one subject on which I expect ridicule!)
Voter Exuberance. Schofield gets this because he is very appealing to the young crowd; no one else has made a dent in that constituency.
Well-Run Campaigns. Glennon stands out for an apparent organizational collapse in the last few weeks: two missed public events; phone calls not answered or returned, no phone number listed on his website, unlisted home phone number; useless push polling in the last couple of weeks, instead of real phone calling; sloppy campaign finance form indicating lack of organizational support; etc. Ciommo's organization -- even though apparently farmed out as consulting work at Sage Systems (i.e., 90% of his expenditures were for "consulting"), and being run in a professional manner -- showed a series of mis-steps across the spectrum: failing to buy his own web domain prior to sending it out on cards; taking three months to put up a website; making more problems than he solved while trying to put out fires on gay marriage and domestic partnerships; giving excessively brief answers to questions and questionnaires; pitching himself as a progressive while simultaneously trying to appeal to the conservative Russian Jewish elderly vote; etc. But they answer their phones, and make a lot of personal connections, so I expect organizational issues to be only a relatively small hit.
Schofield, on the other hand, has run a smooth and well-oiled political machine, and Hanlon comes in a close second. Selvig's organization improved as the campaign went along, but lack of visible supporters outside the first candidates forum, no manager until well into the campaign, the need to appeal to an online forum for warm bodies, etc., meant that he was catching up a lot of lost ground. "Protest candidates" aren't supposed to be about smoothly-run campaigns, anyway.
Conclusion: Schofield ekes out a small victory by 200 votes; watch his performance in the stable, owner-occupied neighborhoods as the bell-wether of his overall performance to determine if he squeaks past Ciommo or beats him soundly. Second-place is too close to call between Ciommo and Glennon, both in the neighborhood of 1500 votes. Glennon pulls off second-place (or a close third) if, and only if, Naakh Visoky decides to deliver a full voting bloc to him; otherwise, Glennon falls to third, if not fourth, because he's just not carrying strong votes in the more moderate areas (fought over by Ciommo and Schofield) and the institutional border regions (fought over by Schofield and Selvig). Hanlon comes in fourth with around 900 votes (or pulls off third if the Russians endorse or lean Ciommo). First-time candidate Selvig garners a respectable 400, a result of hard work in places many other candidates didn't tread, and thinks about running in a future election.
Catch the drift here? The Russian vote determines second place, not first. I'm not sure they're going to be happy when they realize they aren't in the driver's seat anymore in A-B elections.
Monday, September 24, 2007
Election Day Tuesday 9/25: Preliminary Election for A-B District 9 City Council
Voter Information Guide. In case you haven't seen all the Election 2007 related voter information, load the full website of the Brighton Centered Blog and look at the links across the top of the page. Transcripts, audio recordings, questionnaires, interviews, campaign finance reports -- as well as analysis and critical commentary. There is literally no shortage of information about the candidates in this election.
League of Women Voters has a thorough guide detailing everything you need to know about voting.
Who to vote for? For the Allston-Brighton District 9 City Council seat there are five active candidates: Mark Ciommo, Greg Glennon, Rosie Hanlon, Tim Schofield, and Alex Selvig. (All links are to Brighton Centered Blog postings about each candidate.)
There is one candidate, James Jenner, whose name will appear on the ballot but has withdrawn from the race.
Where to vote? Just go to "Where Do I Vote (MA)?"
Note that a few A-B precincts have changed their poll locations. If you go to a polling place and your name is not on the list of registered voters -- but you believe that your registration may still be current -- then request a provisional ballot. You vote now, and then the elections officials will sort it all out later.
When to vote? Polls open 7:00 am -- 8:00 pm. Usually, voters who are in line by 8:00 pm are allowed to vote, no matter how long it takes to process through the queue.
Candidate Websites? Mark Ciommo, Greg Glennon, Rosie Hanlon, Tim Schofield, and Alex Selvig.
Election Results? Probably at the City of Boston's Current Elections website.
How often to vote? Once per registered voter, please.
League of Women Voters has a thorough guide detailing everything you need to know about voting.
Who to vote for? For the Allston-Brighton District 9 City Council seat there are five active candidates: Mark Ciommo, Greg Glennon, Rosie Hanlon, Tim Schofield, and Alex Selvig. (All links are to Brighton Centered Blog postings about each candidate.)
There is one candidate, James Jenner, whose name will appear on the ballot but has withdrawn from the race.
Where to vote? Just go to "Where Do I Vote (MA)?"
Note that a few A-B precincts have changed their poll locations. If you go to a polling place and your name is not on the list of registered voters -- but you believe that your registration may still be current -- then request a provisional ballot. You vote now, and then the elections officials will sort it all out later.
When to vote? Polls open 7:00 am -- 8:00 pm. Usually, voters who are in line by 8:00 pm are allowed to vote, no matter how long it takes to process through the queue.
Candidate Websites? Mark Ciommo, Greg Glennon, Rosie Hanlon, Tim Schofield, and Alex Selvig.
Election Results? Probably at the City of Boston's Current Elections website.
How often to vote? Once per registered voter, please.
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